6-Month Work Plan — Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab

Phase II · ATLAS OF THE GLOBAL CLEAN INDUSTRIAL BASE

Author
Affiliation

Oriol Vallès Codina

Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab (Johns Hopkins University)

Published

April 10, 2026

Abstract

Six-Month Review | Clean Value Chain Explorer | NZIPL | Internal Intelligence Platform integrating four core datasets (Clean Industrial Base, Predicted Competitiveness, Bilateral Trade, Domestic Firm Capabilities) into a unified analytical backbone for clean industrial policy research.

1 Phase II: Trade Model

NZIPL Platform Purpose
Platform Purpose

This platform builds a durable analytical and infrastructure backbone for NZIPL's clean industrial policy research — a global trade model that tracks the movement of technologies, components, and natural resources through the global economy along the product space of clean value chains. It enables assessment of the impacts of green industrial policy, trade policy, interest rates, and quotas on trade, material flows, and aggregate economic indicators — and helps identify the best opportunities for global supply chain cooperation that benefit all countries.

What it tracks
Goods classified by sequential function — raw material, processed material, product component, process equipment — placed at upstream, midstream, or downstream positions along the clean value chain.
How it is structured
Product codes are linked to each other through a tech tree (dendrite), mapping the full input–output structure of each clean technology from extraction to final product. Four integrated datasets provide coverage across trade, firm capabilities, and ML forecasts.
Who it serves
Inputs for ongoing discussions about the rules structuring competition and cooperation between countries — particularly for the Global South — and institutional consolidation of NZIPL's clean industrial policy research agenda.

2 Platform Architecture

CVCE Architecture Diagram
Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab

Project Architecture

At least four core datasets
CIB
Clean Industrial Base
Upstream Raw Material Processed Material
Midstream Processed Material Process Equipment Product Component
Downstream Process Equipment Product Component Final Final Product
Product codes by stage

Product Codes
by Stage & Function

Solar dendrite

Dendrite
Solar

Jonas Goldman · NZIPL
PC
Predicted Competitiveness
  • Competitiveness scores by country & technology
  • SHAP importance scores for top products
PC bubbles

PC Bubbles

PC time series

PC Scores

Ishana Ratan · NZIPL
BACI
UN Comtrade Bilateral Trade
Trade composition

Composition

Solar network

Network

Lithium sankey

Sankey

CEPII · Open Source
ORBIS / S&P
Domestic Firm Capabilities
  • ORBIS or S&P Capital IQ
  • Geolocated firm microdata
  • By NACE activity
ORBIS Solar viewer

Solar · Asia · Firm Locations

S&P Global (Bureau van Dijk) · Private
Other
Other Datasets
  • Regional Industrial Policies Observatory (NZIPL)
  • EMBER energy generation data
  • Chinese FDI flows
Various · Mixed Access
Macro
Macroeconomic Model
  • Multi-regional input-output framework
  • SFC / Ecological SFC Macro Model
  • Clean industrial policy simulations
Macro model
NZIPL · Phase III/IV
CIB
370 HS6 codes · 10 technologies
PC
155 countries · 2003–2024
BACI
200+ countries · 1995–2024
ORBIS / S&P
2,700+ firms · geolocated
Macro
Multi-Regional Clean I-O Simulations of Clean Industrial Policy
CVCE Clean Value Chain Explorer NZIPL Internal Intelligence Platform
⬡
Catalogue of Visualisations & Analytics
Interactive modules combining NZIPL proprietary and open-source data into a unified analytical website.
BubblesDendrite SankeyTreemap MapNetwork RadarTimeseries Trade BalanceTrade Series PC RankingsGallery DataWorkflow Documentation
◈
Deep Dives: Top Highlights on Clean Industrial Policy
Comprehensive statistical analytics and AI-summarized executive summaries for specific technology × country pairs. Integrates all four datasets into a single actionable intelligence report.
COMPONENTS PER REPORT
Trade flowsDendrite position CompetitivenessFirm capabilities AI highlightsVisual report
Flagship: Solar · India
Phase II Deliverable · Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab
Atlas of the Global Clean Industrial Base
Annual intelligence report tracking the structure and evolution of global clean energy supply chains
Key Questions
  1. 01How is the global industrial base for clean energy evolving?
  2. 02What are the flows of resources and technologies through the international system?
  3. 03What are the opportunities for truly global clean energy supply chain cooperation, especially south-south and north-south linkages?
  4. 04What policies and guardrails are needed to build an international system safe for industrial policy?
Deliverables
Electronic Report &
Dynamic Webpage
Data visualizations on critical materials and supply chain flows across 5–6 supply chains (solar, wind, batteries, grid equipment, green ammonia)
2–3 Country
Deep Dives
Per edition — e.g., is India moving upstream in solar? What countries does India's clean-tech sector depend on?
Clean Energy
Corridors
Which bilateral relationships and networks are most important, and what drives successful corridors?
Two Annual
Editions
First Atlas presented November 2025 on NZIPL's main webpage

4 Data Coverage

Clean Industrial Base (Green Dictionary)
Variable Number Description
Observations 610 Enriches all other core datasets
Technologies 10 Batteries, Biofuel, Electrolyzers, Geothermal, Heat Pumps, Magnets, Nuclear, Solar, Transmission, Wind
Product Codes 372 Classified along the clean value chain
Stages 4 Downstream, Final Product, Midstream, Upstream
Roles 0
Bilateral Trade (BACI)
Variable Number Description
Observations 4,680,628 Map, sankey, network, treemap, tradeseries modules
Years 23 2002–2024
Exporter/Importer Countries 223 Countries with population > 1M
Product Codes 90 Codes present in Green Dictionary
Predicted Competitiveness (NZIPL PC)
Variable Number Description
Observations 34,100 Predicted competitiveness score per country-tech-year
Years 22 2003–2024
Economies 155 ISO3 economies with PC scores
Technologies 10 Batteries, Biofuel, Electrolyzers, Geothermal, Heat Pumps, Magnets, Nuclear, Solar, Transmission, Wind
Regions 7 East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, North America, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa
ORBIS Firm Capabilities
Variable Number Description
Firm×Year×Tech rows 1,900,169 Panel rows after HS→NACE tech expansion
Unique Firms 434,640 Unique BvD firm identifiers
Countries 66 Countries with ≥1 clean-tech firm (ISO3)
NACE Codes 67 NACE Rev.2 codes linked to green dictionary
Technologies 10 Batteries, Biofuel, Electrolyzers, Geothermal, Heat Pumps, Magnets, Nuclear, Solar, Transmission, Wind
Years covered 2001–2019 ORBIS vintage 2020; balanced panel
Additional datasets planned or under integration for Phase II.
Dataset Status Coverage Variables Use Case
EMBER Planned ~200 countries, 2000-2024 Generation (TWh) by source: coal, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro Contextualise clean tech deployment; link trade to energy transition
S&P Firm Data Planned Global listed firms, ~10,000+ Revenue, CAPEX, R&D spend, employees, HQ, GICS sector Map firm capabilities to value-chain positions; complement ORBIS
Chinese FDI Planned ~150 countries, 2005-2024 Investment (USD mn), sector, subsector, ownership Analyse Chinese supply chain strategy; link FDI to trade patterns
GDP & Population Integrated 200+ countries, 1990-2024 GDP (current USD, PPP), population Normalise trade flows; scenario analysis
Exchange Rates Planned 180+ countries Annual exchange rates Currency normalisation
Input-Output Tables Planned 65 countries, 1995-2020 OECD TiVA / WIOD Integration into LEEDS macro model
Carbon Pricing Planned 70+ jurisdictions Price per tonne CO2 Tariff and carbon tax scenarios

5 Datasets

370 HS6 product codes across 10 clean technologies and four value-chain stages (Upstream → Midstream → Downstream → Final Product). Codes are mapped to BACI via a WCO concordance ladder, extending time series back to 1995.

All ten technology dendrites. Each is a directed tree rooted at the final product, nodes coloured by Stage × Function.

BACI bilateral trade (CEPII), filtered to NZIPL Green Dictionary codes. Covers 1995–2024, ~200 exporters × importers.

UNCTAD-style value chain trade flows for 10 clean technologies (2022). Node size = export value. Click thumbnail to open interactive viewer.

Value chain trade flows for three critical battery raw materials (Natural Graphite, Lithium, Cobalt Ore), 2022.

ML-derived predicted competitiveness scores (PC) with SHAP feature importance for 155 countries × 10 technologies × 2003–2024.

Domestic firm capabilities from ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) via HS→NACE concordance. ~2,700 clean-tech firms geolocated at city level across 10 technologies.

Domestic Capabilities Light Viewer — Solar clean-tech firms in India & East Asia (geocoded to city level):

Error in `filter()`:
ℹ In argument: `!is.na(role)`.
Caused by error:
! object 'role' not found

Chilean clean-tech firms and global raw-material-stage buyers — colored by Stage × Function.

Firms located in Chile across all clean technologies and value-chain stages. Shows domestic clean-tech firm capability base (copper processing, lithium, mining services, energy equipment).

Error in `filter()`:
ℹ In argument: `!is.na(role)`.
Caused by error:
! object 'role' not found

Global clean-tech firms operating at the Raw Material & Processing stages — the primary market for Chilean copper, lithium, and molybdenum exports. Filtered to Batteries, Transmission, and Wind value chains.

Error in `mutate()`:
ℹ In argument: `type_stage = paste0(stage, "\n", role)`.
Caused by error:
! object 'role' not found

S&P Capital IQ firm-level data covering listed and private clean-tech companies. Complements ORBIS with financial accounts, ownership structure, and M&A activity.

S&P Capital IQ — indicative data coverage
Dimension Coverage
Source S&P Capital IQ Pro
Universe ~1,200 listed + 800 private clean-tech firms
Technologies Batteries, Solar, Wind, Electrolyzers, Heat Pumps, Nuclear, Transmission
Geography 60+ countries; strong coverage in US, EU, China, Japan, Korea
Time span 2000–2023 (financials); 1990–2023 (M&A events)
Key variables Revenue, EBITDA, R&D spend, capex, headcount, ownership (ISO3)
Linkage Matched to ORBIS via BvD ID; to BACI via HS→NACE concordance
Status Pending data access agreement

6 Deep Dives: Solar India

Country × technology case studies — detailed trade profile, value-chain diagnostics, and AI digest. Default: India × Solar.

~$1.8 B
Avg annual imports (2019–23)
~$420 M
Avg annual exports (2019–23)
~–$1.4 B
Avg net trade balance
~64%
Import share from China

India — Solar Value Chain  ·  AI Digest  ·  1995–2023  ·  Source: BACI (CEPII) + NZIPL Green Dictionary

India is a large and growing importer of solar supply chain goods, with a structural trade deficit across most value-chain stages. Demand is driven by ambitious renewable capacity targets (500 GW by 2030), while domestic manufacturing capabilities remain concentrated in downstream assembly (module production) and limited upstream segments.

  • Solar trade volumes grew >10× from 2010 to 2023, driven by module imports.
  • Domestic production concentrated in Downstream Product Component (assembled modules) and some Midstream Process Equipment.
  • Upstream raw materials (polysilicon, silicon wafers) are almost entirely imported.
  • Upstream Raw Material: Persistent deficit. India imports silicon and aluminium inputs; exports iron ore and bauxite (non-solar specific).
  • Midstream Processed Material: Deficit widening post-2015 as ingot/wafer imports from China and Southeast Asia surged.
  • Midstream Product Component: Some domestic capacity in cells; deficit nonetheless remains significant.
  • Downstream Product Component: India has a growing surplus in assembled modules for some markets — the only value-chain segment with a positive balance trajectory.
  • Final Product: Small surplus in some solar systems, limited by component dependencies.

Three persistent structural gaps emerge from deficit-persistence analysis (HHI + deficit by product):

  • Polysilicon & Ingots (HS 2804.61 / 3818.00): Persistent deficit in all three sub-periods; >80% sourced from China. No domestic polysilicon producer at scale.
  • Solar cells (HS 8541.40): Deficit persisting despite PLI scheme incentives; domestic cell capacity covers ~30% of module demand. China and Vietnam supply the remainder.
  • Inverters & Power Electronics (HS 8504.40): Process Equipment bottleneck — high concentration (partner HHI rising post-2015), supply dominated by China and Germany.
  • Module assembly surplus emerging: India is shifting from net importer to net exporter of assembled panels for some markets (US, EU) following anti-dumping measures on China.
  • Aluminium frames & mounting structures: Growing export surplus; India has comparative advantage in aluminium processing.
  • PLI-driven cell capacity: Domestic cell capacity expanding under Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme; watch for deficit reduction in HS 8541.40 post-2024.
  • Green hydrogen interface: Electrolyzers share upstream polysilicon supply chains with solar; integrated procurement policies possible.
  • Prioritise polysilicon and wafer self-sufficiency — the most acute bottleneck, highest HHI, lowest domestic capability. Requires large-scale capital investment and technology partnerships.
  • Diversify cell imports beyond China and Vietnam (Southeast Asia, Middle East) to reduce partner concentration risk.
  • Leverage module export position as a revenue and scale base for upgrading — use export receipts to fund upstream R&D and demonstration plants.
  • Standards & certification infrastructure for power electronics: inverter quality bottleneck is partly a standards gap that suppresses domestic supply.
  • Monitor PLI uptake closely — early indicators (2024 data) will reveal whether cell capacity targets are being met and whether the deficit-persistence pattern is breaking.

Solar India — Clean Value Chain Upgrading  |  Open in new tab ↗

India – Solar Trade Profile 1995–2023  |  Open in new tab ↗

India – Solar Trade Highlights  |  Open in new tab ↗

India – Solar Full Trade Report  |  Open in new tab ↗

7 Deep Dives: Raw Materials Chile

Country × product-type case study — Chile as a global supplier of clean energy raw materials. Covers all clean technologies, filtered to Raw Material type products. Chile is the world’s largest copper exporter and second-largest lithium producer, making it a structurally critical node in multiple clean tech value chains.

~$8 B
Avg annual raw mat. exports (2019–23)
#1
Global copper exporter
#2
Global lithium producer
~55%
Raw mat. exports to China

Chile — Raw Materials  ·  All Clean Technologies  ·  1995–2023  ·  Source: BACI (CEPII) + NZIPL Green Dictionary

Chile is a structurally dominant raw material supplier for multiple clean technology value chains. Its copper deposits (Atacama, Escondida) underpin the global transmission, wind, and battery industries, while the Lithium Triangle positions it as a critical node for battery supply chains. Unlike India's demand-side story, Chile's profile is primarily one of upstream export concentration.

  • Copper exports span Batteries, Transmission, Wind, and Heat Pumps supply chains.
  • Lithium carbonate/hydroxide exports (HS 2825.20) have grown ~15× since 2016, driven by EV battery demand.
  • Chile's raw material exports are structurally concentrated in the Extraction stage — limited downstream processing occurs domestically.
  • Copper (Batteries, Transmission, Wind): Dominant surplus. Chile exports refined copper (HS 7403), copper wire (HS 7408), and copper ores (HS 2603). Partners: China, Japan, South Korea, Germany.
  • Lithium (Batteries): Rapid surplus growth. Lithium carbonate (HS 2825.20) and lithium hydroxide (HS 2825.20) exports grew sharply post-2016. Near-zero imports. China is the dominant buyer (~70%).
  • Molybdenum (Electrolyzers, Nuclear): Modest surplus. Chile is a by-product molybdenum producer via copper mining. Exports concentrated in molybdenum oxides (HS 2613).
  • Import dependence: Chile imports refined process chemicals, machinery, and some processed materials — but is a net surplus country across all clean tech raw material categories.

Chile's raw material trade profile reveals structural dependencies and vulnerabilities:

  • Export partner concentration: ~55% of copper and ~70% of lithium raw material exports go to China. High partner HHI creates geopolitical exposure for Chilean export revenues.
  • Processing gap: Chile exports raw and refined metals but minimal processed intermediates (cathode active materials, battery-grade lithium salts). The value-addition step occurs abroad.
  • Water constraint: Atacama lithium extraction faces water scarcity constraints that may limit scaling of Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) without major investment.
  • Infrastructure bottleneck: Port capacity and rail connectivity from northern mining regions are binding constraints on export volume growth.
  • Lithium processing industrialisation: Chile's National Lithium Strategy (2023) aims to add domestic processing capacity — producing battery-grade lithium hydroxide instead of raw carbonate would capture 3–5× more value per tonne.
  • Copper wire and rod: Downstream copper products (wire, rod, alloys) are a natural upgrading path. Some capacity exists; scaling up would reduce concentration in raw ore exports.
  • Green hydrogen interface: Chile's renewable energy surplus (solar in Atacama, wind in Patagonia) positions it to produce green hydrogen — which shares electrolyzer and transmission supply chain inputs with clean tech raw materials.
  • Diversification of lithium buyers: EU Critical Raw Materials Act and US IRA create demand from non-Chinese buyers; Chile is well-positioned to diversify its export partner base.
  • Invest in battery-grade processing capacity — the most immediate value-capture opportunity. Prioritise lithium hydroxide and cathode precursor facilities.
  • Negotiate offtake agreements with non-Chinese buyers (EU, Japan, South Korea, US) to reduce partner HHI and improve price negotiating power.
  • Develop a copper downstream strategy — leverage existing copper smelting capacity to move into wire rod, alloys, and EV-relevant copper formats.
  • Water-efficient lithium extraction — prioritise DLE technology partnerships to expand capacity without breaching Atacama water budgets.
  • Integrate raw material exports with green hydrogen roadmap — co-locate electrolyzer manufacturing zones near lithium and copper processing hubs to build a vertically integrated clean industrial cluster.

Chile Raw Materials — Clean Value Chain Position  |  Open in new tab ↗

Chile – Raw Materials Trade Profile 1995–2023  |  Open in new tab ↗

Chile – Raw Materials Trade Highlights  |  Open in new tab ↗

Chile – Raw Materials Full Diagnostics Report  |  Open in new tab ↗

8 Clean Tech Viewers

Each technology’s clean value chain as a directed tree rooted at the final product. Click any card to open the interactive visualisation.

9 Work Timeline

10 Work Plan

Work Plan Tasks and Dates
Status Theme Task Date
to do website Phase II Website Launch August – November 2026
to do paper NZIPL Paper Write-up May–June 2026
to do data S&P firm data integration 6/1/2026
to do data EMBER Chinese FDI data integration 6/1/2026
to do data Domestic Investment Data: Rhodium CIM for select countries in U.S. and Europe 6/1/2026
to do data Clean Industrial Policy Observatory DFata 6/1/2026
to do model Code Classical Price Determination, Carbon Taxes and Tariffs Q2 2026
to do model JUST2CE R to Julia Recode Q2 2026
doing paper Deadline for Special Issue of Ecological Economics 3/31/2026
doing data Full Integration of PC importance scores dataset 3/31/2026
doing website Dual network visualization (trade flows + supply chain) 3/31/2026
doing website Website Revamp with Javascript 3/31/2026
to do website Flagship report: Solar India integrated 4-dataset Deep Dive March–April 2026
done data Rebuild BACI bilateral trade dataset with HS revision harmonization 3/7/2026
done data Rebuild dendrite data for dual network visualization 3/7/2026
done website Raw material Sankey diagram (Lithium/Cobalt EV value chain) 3/7/2026
done data Integration of ORBIS geolocated firm dataset 3/15/2026
done data Core Data Rebuild 3/15/2026
done website Deep Dives: report edits and data rebuild February 6–15, 2026
done data Deep Dives: diagnostic benchmarks and draft cleanup 5-Feb-26
done website Deep Dives: AI Highlights and Country Focus Visual Report 4-Feb-26
done website Deep Dives: Solar India Visual Report 4-Feb-26
done paper JUST2CE Paper: Scenario Analysis and Comparison sections 26-Feb
done paper JUST2CE Paper: Discussion section write-up 26-Feb
done data Deep Dives: Infrastructure in place (case study stable) January 26–27, 2026
done website Deep Dives: timeseries and dendrite visualization complete January 21–22, 2026
done website Deep Dives Structure Initialized 20-Jan-26
done conference presentation Presentation on NZIPL Macroeconomic Model 1/16/2026
done engagement Third International Workshop on Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling, Cassino University January 14–16, 2026
done engagement Strategic Reorientation Meeting with Co-Directors: pivot to Atlas Intelligence Platform 15-Dec-25
done data Preliminary work on ORBIS dataset 15-Dec-25
done website Workplan module and snapshots added to website 2-Dec-25
done data Radar Data and work pipeline fixes December 2–4, 2025
done paper Draft Methodology, Findings, Final Remarks 30-Nov-25
done paper Start Paper Draft with JUST2CE Team 26-Nov-25
done website Updated green dictionary and dendrite computation and visualization November 20–21, 2025
done website Public Launch of Phase 1 Website: https://cice.netzeropolicylab.com/ 15-Nov-25
done website Third Draft of the Internal Website Tool 15-Nov-25
done website Start of the Development of the NZIPL Model 15-Nov-25
done data Formalization of Technology Dendrite Trees for the Public Website Launch November 14–21, 2025
done website Trade balance module and trade series added November 1–4, 2025
done data Setup of the Datasets for the Public Website Launch November 1–15, 2025
done website Treemap module and world market shares added October 28–30, 2025
done conference presentation Presentation of the Leeds Model at the 29th Forum for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies Conference, Berlin October 23-25, 2025
done website Offline Sankey pipeline and module built and added to website October 19–23, 2025
done website Second Draft of the Internal Website Tool 15-Oct-25
done paper Assembly of JUST2CE Documents and Notes October 15–30, 2025
done model GitHub Repository Initial Commit of the LEEDS Model 13-Oct-25
done engagement IMF World Bank Annual Meetings (Washington, DC) October 13–18, 2025
done model Setup of the Simple Case of Fixed Exchange Rate and Two Regions 13-Oct-25
done website First Draft of the Internal Website Tool: https://ecoclassical-nzipl-globalgreenvaluechainexplorer.share.connect.posit.cloud/ 21-Sep-25
done engagement NYC Climate Week September 21–28, 2025
done website Start Internal Website Tool 15-Aug-25
done China FDI project Visualization Work for the China Foreign Direct Investment August 15–30, 2025
done data GitHub Repository Initial Commit of the Internal Website Tool 15-Aug-25
done model Modeling Multi-Regional Classical Price Determination to introduce Carbon Taxes and Tariffs 15-Aug-25

11 HS Cross-Revision Consistency

BACI provides a separate dataset for each HS revision (HS92, HS96, HS02, HS07, HS12, HS17, HS22), each covering different year ranges and using different product classifications. Because the bulk of the green technology codes (~94%) are classified under HS22 — which only covers 2022 onwards — a naive join would yield only 3 years of time series for most products.

To reconstruct longer histories, the pipeline uses the WCO official Table II concordance documents (one per revision pair) to trace each canonical code backwards through earlier revisions. The concordance tables are stored in data/concordance/concordance_all.csv (3,499 edges across 4 revision transitions).

HS revision year windows — non-overlapping periods used for the BACI join:

Key methodological assumption — concordance weighting

Each canonical (revision, code) pair in the green dictionary is linked to its ancestor codes in earlier revisions via a backwards traversal of the concordance DAG. A concordance weight (= 1/n, where n is the number of forward targets of the ancestor code) is applied at each hop, so that trade values attributed to any canonical code sum correctly to the original BACI reported flow.

Lineage lookup: entries per revision used to extend time series. Avg concordance weight
Lookup Revision Lookup entries Canonical codes Avg concordance wt
HS07 146 53 0.517
HS17 62 45 0.510
HS12 50 50 0.893
HS22 30 30 1.000
HS02 27 15 0.392

12 Phase I: Website

Bilateral Trade (BACI)

map network sankey treemap tradebalance tradeseries

Bilateral flows at HS 6-digit · world map, network graph, Sankey, trade balance, time series, treemap.

Green Dictionary

dendrite data

Curated HS codes mapped to tech × type × stage · powers the dendrite tree and enriches all bilateral trade modules.

Predicted Competitiveness

bubbles pc rankings radar timeseries

ML-derived scores + SHAP importance · bubble chart, country rankings, radar, time evolution.

Domestic Firm Capabilities (ORBIS)

map case study

Firm-level locations via NACE→HS concordance · geocoded firm maps, country capability profiles.

All Datasets

case study

Country deep-dive integrating all four core datasets into a unified diagnostic view.

Platform

gallery documentation readme workflow

Static asset gallery, EDA documentation, platform readme, internal task timeline.

13 Phase III: Macro Model

Leeds Stock-Flow Consistent macroeconomic model — conference presentation slides.  |  Open in new tab ↗

14 Research Infrastructure Costs

This section documents software subscriptions and research travel costs supporting Phase II (Aug 2025 – Mar 2026).

14.1 Subscription Overview

Monthly software subscriptions for research infrastructure, Phase II.
Service Plan Purpose Monthly (USD) Start End
Claude (Anthropic) Pro Primary coding assistant (Claude Code CLI) 20 Mar 1, 2026 ongoing
ChatGPT (OpenAI) Plus General-purpose LLM, literature review, writing 20 Aug 15, 2025 Feb 28, 2026
Posit Connect Cloud Basic Quarto publishing & Shiny hosting 20 Aug 15, 2025 Mar 15, 2026
Windsurf (Codeium) Pro AI-assisted code editor (R, Python, Quarto) 15 Aug 15, 2025 Feb 28, 2026

14.2 Cost Evolution

14.3 Six-Month Cost Breakdown

Cost breakdown by service (USD). Period: Aug 15, 2025 – Mar 15, 2026.
Service $/month Period Billing cycles Total (USD)
Claude Pro $20 Mar 1–15, 2026 1 $20
ChatGPT Plus $20 Aug 15, 2025–Feb 28, 2026 6 $120
Posit Connect Cloud $20 Aug 15, 2025–Mar 15, 2026 7 $140
Windsurf Pro $15 Aug 15, 2025–Feb 28, 2026 6 $90
Total — — — $370

Total software spend Aug 2025 – Mar 15, 2026: $370. Windsurf and ChatGPT ended Feb 28, 2026. Posit Connect Cloud ($20/month) cancelled Mar 15, 2026. Claude Pro activated Mar 1, 2026 ($20/month). Current monthly rate from Mar 15: $20/month (Claude Pro only).

14.4 Travel Costs

Research engagement travel during Phase II (flight + accommodation + per diem estimate).

Research travel costs (estimated). Includes flight, accommodation, and per diem.
Trip Date Purpose Est. Cost (USD)
Engagement Trip — Berlin Oct 2022 Stakeholder engagement, NZIPL network meetings $150
Workshop Trip — Rome / Cassino (FCO) Jan 14–16, 2026 3rd Intl Workshop on Empirical SFC Modeling, Cassino Univ. $150

Total travel costs (estimated): $300. Estimates cover round-trip flights, accommodation, and meals. Receipts filed separately.

Phase II Grand Total (software + travel): $670.

15 Project Structure

NZIPL-CVCE/
├── app.R                         # Shiny app entry point
├── global.R                      # Theme, constants, package loading
├── shared.R                      # Central data loader (app + QMDs)
├── workplan.html                 # Rendered Phase II work plan
├── R/                            # Shared helpers & theme
│   ├── nzipl_theme.R         # ggplot2 theme (Archivo font)
│   ├── nzipl_viz_helpers.R   # Colour palettes, type-stage colours
│   ├── bilateral_loader.R    # Arrow dataset helpers
│   ├── sankey.R              # Sankey chart builder
│   └── helpers.R             # Misc utilities
├── modules/                      # Shiny UI/server modules
│   ├── mod_map.R             # World map (choropleth + bubbles)
│   ├── mod_sankey.R          # UNCTAD-style value-chain Sankey
│   ├── mod_dendrite.R        # HS-code technology dendrite (visNetwork)
│   ├── mod_radar.R           # Country competitiveness radar
│   ├── mod_network.R         # Bilateral trade network
│   ├── mod_treemap.R         # Trade composition treemap
│   ├── mod_pc_rankings.R     # Predicted competitiveness rankings
│   └── …                          # (+ timeseries, tradebalance, bubbles, case_study)
├── docs/                         # Shareable documents (browser-accessible)
│   └── slides.html           # Conference presentation slides
├── analysis/                     # Stand-alone HTML viewers (no server needed)
│   ├── dendrite/             # dendrite_<Tech>.html (one per technology)
│   ├── orbis/                # orbis_viewer_<Tech>.html
│   ├── sankey/               # sankey_tech_<tech>_2022.html
│   └── snapshots/            # App screenshot gallery
├── scripts/build_data/           # Numbered pipeline (00–08 + 99_build_all.R)
├── data/                         # Runtime data — CSVs & small parquets (git-tracked)
│   ├── green_dict/           # Green dictionary CSVs
│   ├── concordance/          # WCO HS revision concordance tables
│   ├── orbis/                # orbis_avg.parquet + orbis_nace_tech.csv
│   ├── pc/                   # pc_scores.parquet, pc_rca.parquet, CSVs
│   └── auxiliary/            # GDP, workflow metadata
├── cache/                        # Large Arrow datasets (gitignored, built locally)
│   ├── bilateral_ds/         # Bilateral trade partitioned by year
│   ├── unilateral.parquet    # Country-level trade aggregates
│   └── sankey.parquet        # Sankey flows cache
├── qmd/workplan/                 # Quarto work plan (renders to workplan.html)
└── renv/                         # R dependency management (renv.lock)
📂 scripts/build_data/ — pipeline scripts 
  00_config.R
  00b_build_concordance_rds.R
  01_build_green_dictionary.R
  01b_enrich_green_dictionary.R
  02_build_baci_extract.R
  02b_build_lineage_lookup.R
  03_build_bilateral.R
  04_build_unilateral.R
  05_build_dendrite.R
  05_build_sankey_data.R
  06a_build_tech_sankey.R
  06b_build_material_sankey.R
  07_build_pc.R
  08_build_orbis.R
  08b_build_orbis_avg.R
  08c_build_naics_crosswalk.R
  09_build_pc_scatter.R
  10_build_pc_scatter_pngs.R
  11_build_normalized_rf.R
  99_build_all.R

16 GitHub Log

2b84071 Rename type→role, type_stage→stage_role throughout codebase; rebuild pipeline Apr 10, 2026
48b4530 Slim pc_scatter: top-50 countries, 2018-2024, loading spinner Apr 08, 2026
3afa6bb PC scatter v2: outlier filter, dual encoding, OLS + HLM tables Apr 08, 2026
07eefb1 Rebuild PC scatter PNGs: % GDP, NZIPL palette, 3 metrics × 64 charts Apr 08, 2026
e786c8b Add PC scatter PNG suite (16 charts, analysis/scatterplot/) Apr 08, 2026
7f8ec8d Embed Plotly JS inline in pc_scatter.html (no CDN) Apr 08, 2026
f1fc3f9 Fix PC scatter rendering and dendrite legend Apr 08, 2026
ab18c79 Fix pc_scatter HTML height (min-height:0 + explicit Plotly dims); add to deploy Apr 08, 2026
6a9183d Add PC feature importance vs trade scatter viewer (09_build_pc_scatter.R) Apr 08, 2026
c731bfd 07_build_pc: source pc_features from per-tech SHAP CSVs instead of Excel Apr 08, 2026
dd4ce33 sync_onedrive.sh: include cache/ in sync Apr 08, 2026
bf428aa sync_onedrive.sh: sync full project folder (exclude cache, renv/library, .git) Apr 08, 2026
2b34dee Add sync_onedrive.sh; wire into render.sh; include green_dict CSVs Apr 08, 2026
06d05bb Add NACE4 + NAICS6 enrichment to green dictionary (step 01b) Apr 08, 2026
49c847e Trim concordance audit: delete 4 visuals, promote Hierarchy to §2 Apr 08, 2026
0d6a037 Restructure concordance audit: routes clarified, §4 consolidated, all code foldable Apr 08, 2026
7b66802 Correct classification picture: ORBIS=NACE, S&P=GICS+SIC+NAICS (not NACE) Apr 08, 2026
dfb96ca Expand concordance audit: multi-tech §3 tabset, §4 barplot, fix S&P/Mermaid Apr 08, 2026
c41728b Reorganise concordance audit: §1 overview with DB landscape, diagram, routes+sources Apr 08, 2026
2234f99 Rename routes: A=HS→NACE (primary), B=NACE→NAICS via HS, C=NACE→NAICS via ISIC Apr 08, 2026
019c110 Extend HS→NACE concordance: add 33 mining/agri codes, reframe audit QMD Apr 08, 2026
766229f Add render script for concordance audit (outputs to docs/reports/) Apr 08, 2026
ab9988a Add JHU faculty section, CSV export, and crosswalk visualizations to concordance audit Apr 08, 2026
08c52be Restructure concordance audit QMD: Route B, DB comparison, clean framing Apr 08, 2026
df4aeab Add NAICS6 crosswalk to orbis_nace_tech; update audit report Apr 08, 2026
03602fe Restore hs_nace concordance file; add NACE/NAICS audit report Apr 07, 2026
626b93a Add Solar India & Chile case study suites; update CLAUDE.md context Apr 04, 2026
f69cb06 Add travel costs section: Berlin engagement + Rome/Cassino workshop Mar 18, 2026
fc83951 Replace HS revision table with ggplot barplot; add Phase III macro section Mar 18, 2026
ebe5110 Phase III Macro Model section; Phase I compact card diagram; rename slides→macro_slides Mar 18, 2026
1de30a5 Revert subtitle — 🌸 Nowruz only in git tag, not in document Mar 18, 2026
a11066f 🌸 v1.0.0 Nowruz — add version to workplan subtitle Mar 18, 2026
16c3780 Fix iframe paths: docs/reports/ consistent across all three contexts Mar 18, 2026
507fff1 render.sh: auto-sync workplan.html to OneDrive after render Mar 18, 2026
c9596a1 Move Reports tab from Clean Tech Viewers to Deep Dives Mar 18, 2026
7683562 Add Reports tab to Deep Dives: 4 Solar India reports via iframe Mar 18, 2026
0d126fd Add scripts/render.sh: render workplan and copy to project root Mar 18, 2026
7c63488 Add concordance weight callout; clear cache for fct_reorder fix Mar 18, 2026
87a0a51 Fix fct_reorder: qualify as forcats::fct_reorder in dd_exp_dest and dd_imp_src Mar 18, 2026
ae98dcf Fix slides.html path: add qmd/workplan/docs/, update deploy script Mar 18, 2026
cbce62a Workplan: subscription fixes, HS network figure, slides link, README refresh Mar 18, 2026
b0e17be Fix dendrite snapshots: revert to tagList() return, all 10 techs Mar 17, 2026
39a8635 All 10 dendrite snapshots, macro image, atlas headers, dendrite height fix Mar 17, 2026
8359f4d BACI stacked images: 2:1:1 height ratio (Composition double height) Mar 17, 2026
242936e Diagram: portrait dendrite column, BACI vertical stack Mar 17, 2026
a9cdaf2 Fix typestage palette, rebuild data, update diagram thumbnails Mar 17, 2026
b83c19e Update diagram snapshots (BACI figures, product codes) and re-rendered workplan Mar 17, 2026
d15bbb6 Rotate Solar dendrite thumbnail 90° CW, remove CSS rotation Mar 17, 2026
57c3e60 Add snapshots.csv + qmd/workplan/snapshots/ for diagram image management Mar 17, 2026
8414425 Diagram: ORBIS Solar snapshot, Atlas deliverables 2-col table, BACI mini-tabs Mar 17, 2026