Tracker — closure × region × scenario (calibration + run progress)

Written 2026-10-02 by /track-progress closure × region × scenario. Hand-maintained from here on, under /checklist's reconciliation rule: ticks are never rewritten, items are not deleted. Rendered by agent-workflow-kit/render_checklist.py log/trackers/closure_region_scenario.md to output/html/trackers/closure_region_scenario.html.

What the grid is. Four Godley–Lavoie external closures (gold, fiat, OPENFIXG, quasi-float) crossed with two regional workbooks (EU/RoW, North/South) = eight scenario-grid arms. Each arm runs twelve circular-economy scenarios (1–4, 6–13; construction 5/14 excluded). OPENFIXR and OPENFLEX are excluded from the scenario grid (documented reasons in closure_region.md). Baseline qualification records the measured debt/VA level and strict |debt/VA OLS slope| < 1e-4 gate over t71–100, with the explicit quasi-float EU exception below; a cell's scenario progress is the count of its twelve runs accepted in the status CSV.

Why the EU/RoW columns were regenerated. The maintainer authorised a Ξ-consistent enterprise-premium recalibration on 2026-10-02: EU/RoW e 0.222233 → 0.219545 (North/South stays at 0.225457). Changing e breaks the old baselines, so the four EU/RoW arms are re-cut and their 48 scenarios re-run (scenario_grid_20261002_xi_status.csv); the four North/South arms are unchanged and must come back hash-identical (the pipeline rejects any drift). One measured exception: the quasi-float EU/RoW baseline's EU debt/VA slope is −1.029e-04 (2.9% over the gate) — the debt endowment cannot move the slope and λ/tax are knife-edge, so it is documented and accepted, not chased.

Measured completion: 20261002_xi has 96/96 accepted scenarios and zero failures; all 48 North/South cache hashes match the retained archive. Verified from the status CSV and unchanged_north_south_receipt.json.

Scenario grid — baseline qualification and completed runs

• Not reconciledOPENFIX-gold × EU/RoW (revised): calibrated (e 0.219545), 12/12 re-run. Debt/VA 0.8101/0.8500, slope −5.3e-5/5.1e-5; baseline = gold_fit1. — scenario_grid_20261002_xi_status.csv
closure: OPENFIX-gold region: EU/RoW
• Not reconciledOPENFIX-gold × North/South (revised_ns): calibrated (e 0.225457), 12/12 hash-preserved. Debt/VA 0.978/0.365; unchanged by the recalibration. — scenario_grid_20261002_xi_status.csv
closure: OPENFIX-gold region: North/South
• Not reconciledOPENFIX-fiat × EU/RoW (revised_openfix_fiat): calibrated (e 0.219545), 12/12 re-run. Debt/VA 0.8100/0.8500, slope −5.1e-5/5.0e-5; baseline = fiat_fit1. — accepted in regeneration
  closure: OPENFIX-fiat region: EU/RoW
• Not reconciledOPENFIX-fiat × North/South (revised_ns_openfix_fiat): calibrated (e 0.225457), 12/12 hash-preserved. South CB short −11.5 North bills (open decision). — accepted in regeneration
  closure: OPENFIX-fiat region: North/South
• Not reconciledOPENFIXG × EU/RoW (revised_openfixg): calibrated (e 0.219545), 12/12 re-run. Debt/VA 0.8402/0.8419, slope −7.5e-5/4.3e-5. — accepted in regeneration
  closure: OPENFIXG region: EU/RoW
• Not reconciledOPENFIXG × North/South (revised_ns_openfixg): calibrated (e 0.225457), 12/12 hash-preserved. — accepted in regeneration
  closure: OPENFIXG region: North/South
• Not reconciledQuasi-float × EU/RoW (revised_quasifloat): calibrated with documented exception (e 0.219545), 0/12 re-run. EU debt/VA slope −1.029e-04 (2.9% over gate), whitelisted at |slope|<1.5e-4. — queued in regeneration
  closure: Quasi-float region: EU/RoW
• Not reconciledQuasi-float × North/South (revised_ns_quasifloat): calibrated (e 0.225457), 12/12 hash-preserved. — accepted in regeneration
  closure: Quasi-float region: North/South

Excluded from the scenario grid

• Not reconciledOPENFIXR × both regions: excluded with reason (G&L §12.6.1 instability; its rate would carry every price). — open question 26
  closure: OPENFIXR region: all
• Not reconciledOPENFLEX × EU/RoW: old/new diagnostic comparison complete, not a scenario arm. Old e 0.222233: xr t100 = 12,951, 14.799% fitted |xr−1| growth. New e 0.219545: xr t100 = 11,302, 14.617% growth. Both diverge; new-cache t9–20 temporary pulses amplify. No stationary comparator.
  closure: OPENFLEX region: EU/RoW

Next steps

• Next stepFinish the regeneration — all 96 accepted; North/South preservation and analysis receipts committed at 50b5520.
• Next stepCommit the promoted workbook + receipts (canonical_initial_state.xlsx, regenerate_xi_results.py whitelist, promotion_receipt.json, workbook_cell_changes.csv, baselines_ready.json, closure_baselines_stability_20261002_xi.csv).
• Next stepRender the before/after report — HTML/PDF delivered; quasi-float drift is a measured exception.

Blocked on me

• Blocked on me🚧 Scenario 6 policy scope (net-investment vs replacement-capital).
  decision: open
• Blocked on me🚧 par_xr (provisional 0.15).
  decision: open
• Blocked on me🚧 Negative South fiat reserve (−11.5 North bills).
  decision: open

Rows: closure · columns: region · hover a cell for the item; items tagged all are in the Table and Report only.