Ecological MacroeconomicsE3O44O25Q57Q32
Multi-Regional Stock-Flow-Consistent Models
A two-region, 54-industry ecological model that joins multi-regional input–output structure to stock-flow-consistent dynamics, calibrated for the European Union and the Rest of the World. It traces how circular-economy and climate policies transmit across borders, and what they do to distribution, fiscal balances and ecological outcomes in each region. A multi-regional extension, at the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins, studies carbon taxes, border tariffs and industrial-policy instruments (subsidies, domestic-content requirements, green procurement) with explicit roles for China, the United States and South–South trade.
- The Macroeconomic Consequences of Ecological Unequal Exchange — revise and resubmit, Ecological Economics. Model and results: equations, closures, scenario responses and dynamical analysis.
- Fevereiro, Genovese, Purvis, Passarella & Vallès Codina (2025). Macroeconomic Models for Assessing the Transition towards a Circular Economy: A Review. Ecological Economics.
- Bimpizas-Pinis et al. (2023). Using input–output stock-flow consistent models to simulate and assess circular economy strategies. In Circular Economy for Social Transformation.
- Applied models: the Leeds input–output SFC model for the Philippines (De La Salle University, Manila); and the financial data of the AFD’s GEMMES Mexico model — debt stocks and interest flows from Banxico, the CNBV and Hacienda, reconciled with INEGI’s national accounts into annual transaction-flow matrices, 2003–2024.
Multi-Sector Growth under Structural Change
Multi-sector models in the Bielefeld disequilibrium tradition, combining Walrasian price, classical quantity and Keynesian demand adjustment, calibrated on large input–output databases. Questions: can sectoral price and profit caps stabilise volatility; how long does low-carbon structural change take; and can a state act as a supplier of last resort for critical raw materials, as a central bank is a lender of last resort?
- Vallès Codina (2023). Business cycles, sectoral price stabilization, and climate change mitigation. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 216.
- Vallès Codina & Semmler (2024). Time Scales of the Low-Carbon Transition: A Data-Driven Dynamic Multi-Sector Growth Model. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik.
- Supplier of Last Resort: Public Buffer Stocks and Price Stabilization in a Multi-Sector Economy with Exhaustible Resources — in preparation, for Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
Uneven Development and the Global Structure of ProductionF02F4Q56
Clean Value Chains
The Clean Value Chain Explorer, built at the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab for policy audiences, maps the global value chains of ten clean technologies, with electric vehicles in draft: bilateral trade at HS 6-digit from BACI, 1995–2024, machine-learned competitiveness scores and firm-level location data for seven focal countries. Its question for a policy-maker: for which technology, production stage and role is it better to build domestic capacity, and for which to import?
The Network Structure of Ecological Unequal Exchange
High-income economies appropriate materials, energy, land and labour from lower-income ones far in excess of what they export, but that result is measured as bilateral net flows. This project asks how the appropriation is organised as a network. Because the Leontief inverse is the walk-generating function of the production graph, (I − A)−1 = Σk Ak, Leontief multipliers are a path-counting centrality, so network measures carry an economic meaning rather than a metaphor. Built on the GLORIA multi-regional supply–use tables (164 regions × 120 sectors).
- The Network Structure of Ecological Unequal Exchange — 2019 cross-section complete; network analysis and time series in progress.
Health, Structure and Migration
- Vallès Codina (2022). The Purely Economic Case for Investing in Health for All in Lower- and Upper-Middle Income Countries. UCL IIPP Working Paper 2022-03. A revised version, Is Health at Odds with the Economy?, is in preparation for Economic Systems Research.
- Prototypes of national industrial structure — do national economies fall into a few prototypes, and do they move between them as they develop?
- Cycles of migration in coupled Goodwin models (with N. Rodousakis) — does migration between core and periphery synchronise, damp or amplify their distributive cycles?
- Regional income convergence in Europe, 1900–2015 — have regional incomes converged over the long twentieth century?
An Ecological Approach to Classical Political EconomyBE3
Classical Economic Thermodynamics
Does the labour theory of value give a conservation law? The classical tradition supplies a first law, the MELT identity (value is conserved in exchange, for any price system), and a second law in value-form terms: the Fundamental Marxian Theorem, which runs one way only once there is rent, together with the irreversibility of accumulation. The work reads Mirowski, Georgescu-Roegen and the Cambridge capital controversies to argue that the classical tradition, not the neoclassical, carries the right thermodynamic analogy.
- Classical Economic Thermodynamics: The Fundamental Laws of Motion of Value and Social Reproduction
- The Conservation of Value — working paper, for the Review of Political Economy
The Ricardian Dynamics of the Metabolic Rift
Environmentalism without class struggle is just gardening — a Ricardian model in which rising rent, not the exhaustion of energy, sets the limit to accumulation. Profit is the free part of the surplus and rent the bound part; rent’s irreversible rise is the analogue of the second law. Whether the stationary state is reached smoothly or through chaos depends on how the surplus is divided between rent, profit and the restoration of the soil. In revision, for Ecological Economics.
Production Networks, Complexity, and Crisis
Sraffa’s basic commodities form the dominant autocatalytic set of the production network, and crises appear as phase transitions — discontinuous collapse when a keystone sector’s disruption breaks catalytic closure — rather than smooth departures from equilibrium.
- The Sraffian Economy as an Autocatalytic Set: Production Networks, Complexity, and Crisis — for Physical Review E
A Conflict Theory of Pricing
How do competitive firms set prices under distributive conflict, and why is the profitability of US firms tent-shaped (Laplace-distributed)? Building on Classical-Evolutionary Dynamics of Price Formation (New School for Social Research working paper, 2020); in preparation, for Industrial and Corporate Change.
Also: Timbuktu — an interactive research library: citation network, sortable library and cluster analysis of about 6,000 papers.